基于模糊影响图的海洋结构风险分析方法研究     

康海贵  阎利军  周鹏飞 《海洋通报(英文版)》2006,8(2):21-30

基于模糊影响图(FPID)和失效模式与效果分析(FMEA)建立了一种海洋结构风险分析方法。鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,本文将模糊概率的概念引入海洋结构影响图评估方法中。该方法成功地应用到海洋平台人员伤害分析中。虽然这里仅给出了该方法在海洋平台风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。  相似文献   

ENSO预报模式及其改进的进展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

钱维宏 《海洋预报》1996,13(3):1-12

近年来，为预报ＥＮＳＯ事件已研制出多种方法、包括海气耦合动力学模式，统计模式，物理海洋／统计大气模式等。其中耦合动力学模式的范围从简单的浅水模式到复杂的大气环流模式。在１９８０－１９９２年的这一时段内，一些动力学攻统计模式预报ＥＮＳＯ指数提前６－１２个月的水平已超过了持续性预报。  相似文献   

海洋环境治理的政策选择   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王琪  何广顺 《海洋通报》2004,23(3):73-80

海洋经济的发展必然给海洋环境带来冲击，解决海洋环境问题需要政府、企业和公众三方的共同努力。本文在对海洋环境政策进行结构分析的基础上，从政府与企业关系的角度，对海洋环境治理的政策选择模式进行了具体分析。  相似文献   

太平洋海面粗糙度的计算及在ENSO期间的变化     

过杰  郭佩芳  周良明 《海洋科学》2006,30(6):87-91

利用TOPEX高度计风速资料,实现了对太平洋海面粗糙度(z0)的计算。1997~1999年正是厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜事件发生时期,作者研究了1997~1999年z0在ENSO期间的变化后发现:(1)EI Nion发生期间赤道附近z0最大值在A,C,B 3个站点上移动;最小值在B,A 2个站点上移动。(2)Li Nina发生期间赤道附近z0最小值在A站点,最大值主要在B站点上。Li Nina发生期间,1999年15个站点z0均大于正常年份和EI Nion发生期间的15个站点z0。(3)ENSO期间,四季z0与正常年份相比都有显著改变。  相似文献   

Wind effects on sub-tidal currents in Puget Sound     

Hiroshi Matsuura  Glenn A. Cannon 《Journal of Oceanography》1997,53(1):53-66

Wind effects on sub-tidal currents are studied using current meter records obtained at six moorings across the main basin of Puget Sound. High correlations between wind speeds and currents are found near the surface and at mid-depths of about 100 m. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis applied to the axial currents in 1984 and 1985 shows that mode 1, containing over 60% of the variance, is highly correlated with wind speed even without any near surface current records. When near surface stratification is strong, direct wind effects are limited to the upper 30 m with counter currents in the lower layer indicating a baroclinic response. The transport in the lower layer almost balances the transport in the upper layer. When near surface stratification is weak, direct wind effects on currents can be detected to about 100 m. In this case, there is no clear and consistent depth at which one can separate the upper from the lower layer. Time series show that the acceleration in the surface layer initially increases in the same direction as the wind when the wind starts blowing, but it reaches a maximum, starts decreasing, and eventually changes to the opposite direction (decelerates) while the wind continues to blow in one direction. Results of a continuously stratified normal mode model and estimations from the observations suggest that friction at solid boundaries is a major cause of these phenomena. The model shows that modal currents of normal modes 2 and 3 are as important as mode 1, although the resultant vertical structure of total current shows a two-layer type pattern with only one zero crossing. The effect of the baroclinic pressure gradient is only apparent at low frequencies and among lower modes.  相似文献   

西太平洋暖池海域热含量场的变异及其影响   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

张启龙  翁学传  程明华 《海洋与湖沼》2003,34(4):389-396

基于 1 95 5— 1 999年间太平洋月平均海温资料 ,利用经验正交函数 (EOF)分解法 ,研究了西太平洋暖池海域 ( 1 2 0°E— 1 60°W ,1 8°N— 1 6°S)热含量场的时空变化 ,并分析了该海域东、西区热含量变化与南方涛动、副热带高压及ENSO的关系。结果表明 ,暖池海域热含量场主要包括年变化型、年际变化型和年代际变化型三个模态 ,其主要变化周期依次为 1 .0、3.6和 1 3.7年。相关和合成分析表明 ,暖池东、西区热含量的变化均与南方涛动、副热带高压和ENSO循环有十分密切的关系。  相似文献   

A delayed action oscillator shared by the ENSO and QDO in the Indian ocean     

Warren B. White  Yves M. Tourre 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(2):223-241

  相似文献   

海洋模态在海洋水声学中的潜在应用前景   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

崔茂常  乔方利  莫军  郭炳火 《海洋学报》2002,24(6):127-134

如同音分五律、光分七色一样,海洋中错综复杂的流速、声速剖面也可以分解成为数不多的经验正交海洋模态(empiricalorthogonaloceanmode)[1～5].以此为基础,20世纪80年代初在着名物理海洋学家Munk和Wunsch的倡导下,美国在大西洋实施了海洋声层析(oceanacoustictomography)实验.声层析技术最主要的潜力在于其观测的积分性质.每秒一次的声层析观测实质上是通过高速传播的声波对长距离内的物理量取积分,因此它能够在较大的时空尺度下求得活跃的中尺度涡旋场的平均值.  相似文献   

Coral Cover Change Associated to El Niño, Eastern Pacific, Costa Rica, 1992–2001     

Carlos E. Jiménez  & Jorge Cortés 《Marine Ecology》2003,24(3):179-192

Abstract. Changes in live and dead coral cover were documented at three localities off the Costa Rican central Pacific coast first in 1992 during the aftermath of the 1991–1992 El Niño; again in the period between 1994 and 1995, and last in January 2001. Recovery of coral communities after the 1991–1992 El Niño was expressed by a significant increase (～40 %) in 1994 of live coral cover at one locality (Manuel Antonio). A subsequent decrease (～50 %) in response to the very strong 1997–1998 episode was recorded at Manuel Antonio and Ballena, mainly due to partial tissue mortality of branching (Pocillopora spp.) and massive (Porites lobata) corals. Mortality of entire colonies associated to that event was scarce and confined to branching and nodular (Psammocora stellata) corals. This species was not found at one locality (Cambutal) in the 2001 survey and it is presumed locally extinct. The recovery of this coral and others will depend on recruits from surviving colonies in deeper waters and other coral communities in the vicinity. Within sites at a given locality, contrasting results in live coral cover variability were found. This is partially due to distinct coral assemblages, coral growth, physical exposure to tidal regime, and, related to the latter, variable duration and intensity of the warming event. In general, predominant meteorological conditions at the studied area are conducive to solar radiation (UV) stress during El Niño years and are related to changes in the atmosphere‐ocean interactions in response to the warming events.  相似文献   

局地凝结加热对大气赤道波动稳定性的影响(英文)     

Gregory Zhikharev  傅刚  左中道 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1993,(1)

利用β平面上大气斜压强迫模式,探讨了局地海表温度异常所造成的非绝热加热影响的赤道小振幅“拦截波”的稳定性。指出当加热函数是半余弦形式时,在加热区大气的反应是局地性的,但这个加热函数的小扰动能产生非局地性的大尺度反应。平均海表温度降低了赤道波动的稳定性。当稍超过临界值时,小尺度海表温度异常有可能使波动不稳定。  相似文献